Past Fed Rate Cuts vs. Today’s Setup What It Means for BTC, ETH, and SOL
updated Sep 13, 2025
Snapshot right now: BTC ≈ $116,057, ETH ≈ $4,717.99, SOL ≈ $242.37. The next Fed meeting is Sep 16–17, 2025; markets expect a 0.25% (25 bps) cut. August CPI printed 2.9% YoY (core 3.1%).
Read this first (why you should care)
When the Fed cuts rates, money gets cheaper. Cheaper money often lifts risk assets like crypto because borrowing is easier and the dollar usually cools off. But the message about the future matters as much as the cut itself. In Dec 2024, the Fed cut but said fewer cuts ahead → crypto fell. In Sep 2024, the Fed cut and sounded open to more easing → crypto held or went higher.
TL;DR
Base case this week: 25 bps cut with a calm, data-dependent tone (cautiously dovish).
If guidance is dovish (open to more easing in 2025), 1–2 weeks later: BTC +5–10%, ETH +4–9%, SOL +7–12% (exact price paths below).
If guidance is hawkish (fewer future cuts), expect sell-the-news: BTC tends to dip least, SOL most. (We saw this in Dec 2024.)
Quick explainer (so you never get lost)
Rate cut: Fed lowers the policy rate (the price of money). Good for risk assets unless it’s during a panic—then prices can drop first, recover later.
Dovish: Friendly to easing. Think: “We can cut more if needed.”
Hawkish: Careful about easing. Think: “Don’t expect many more cuts.”
Dot plot: The Fed’s chart of officials’ future rate paths. More 2025 cuts = dovish; fewer = hawkish. The guidance (dots + press Q&A) often moves markets more than the cut size.
Case studies (what actually happened in past)
2019 — “insurance” cuts (not a crisis).
First 25 bps cut Jul 31, 2019. Powell called it a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Markets had expected it; crypto often went higher on the day and gave some back later. Pattern: chop into the meeting, gentle up-drift after if stocks are calm.
March 2020 — emergency cuts (real panic).
Two unscheduled moves (Mar 3 and Mar 15 to 0–0.25%). Crypto fell first (“Black Thursday”), then recovered later with liquidity programs. Pattern: cuts don’t save prices that day in a crisis; stability comes after.
Sep 18, 2024 — 50 bps cut, dovish tone.
Fed cut 1/2 point to 4.75–5.00% and sounded like recalibration, not panic. Crypto dipped into the meeting (25 vs 50 debate), then held/moved higher after. Pattern: expected + dovish → sideways before, up after.
Dec 18, 2024 — 25 bps cut, hawkish guidance.
Fed cut ¼ point but signaled fewer 2025 cuts (the media called it a “hawkish cut”). Crypto fell anyway. Pattern: guidance > size.
Where we are today (Sep 13, 2025)
Timing: Sep 16–17 meeting; statement around 2:00 pm ET and press conference after.
Fresh inflation: CPI 2.9% YoY, core 3.1% (Aug). Slightly hot → likely cautiously dovish tone (“we’ll watch the data”).
Consensus: A 25 bps cut is the base case (some chatter about 50 bps, but consensus is 25).
SOL tailwinds: Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF listing proposal is on file (Cboe BZX; Federal Register notice Aug 18). That’s not approval, but headlines can help. Also, SOL ETPs are on a 21-week inflow streak (~$1.16B).
My read of the process: Cautiously dovish (easing starts, but the Fed stays data-dependent). This looks closer to 2019/2024 (expected, calm) than 2020 (panic).
The probability model (and whythese numbers)
We bucketed history into: expected non-crisis cuts (e.g., Sep 2024), hawkish cuts (Dec 2024), crisis cuts (Mar 2020). Then we mapped crypto direction over T+1 to T+14 and adjusted for today (slightly hot CPI; 25 bps most likely; SOL’s ETF/inflow support). Small-sample warning: informed estimates, not guarantees.
Scenario matrix — expected move by
T+14 (two weeks after)
Scenario this week
BTC
ETH
SOL
Why
25 bps + dovish (base)
+5% to +10% → $121,860–$127,663
+4% to +9% → $4,906–$5,143
+7% to +12% → $259–$271
Mirrors Sep 2024 (“expected + friendly”); SOL gets a small extra push from ETF headlines & inflows.
25 bps + hawkish
−3% to −7% → $112,575–$107,933
−4% to −8% → $4,529–$4,341
−5% to −10% → $230–$218
Dec 2024 template: future-cuts guidance outweighed the cut.
50 bps (very dovish)
+10% to +16% → $127,663–$134,626
+8% to +14% → $5,095–$5,379
+12% to +20% → $271–$291
Bigger surprise + dovish tone adds fuel, tempered by today’s slightly hot CPI.
No cut + dovish
+2% to +6% → $118,378–$123,020
+1% to +5% → $4,765–$4,954
+3% to +8% → $249–$262
Clear easing message can still lift crypto without a cut, usually less than base case.
(Price ranges use today’s marks: BTC $116,057; ETH $4,718; SOL $242.37.)
Why these odds?
Directional template: Sep 2024 (expected + dovish) → higher; Dec 2024 (hawkish cut) -> lower; Mar 2020 (crisis) -> down first. Today maps closer to Sep 2024.
Macro cross-checks: If dots show more 2025 cuts and 2-yr yield/DXY slip, that’s dovish; the opposite is hawkish.
SOL’s tilt: Active BZX filing + 21-week inflows give SOL slightly higher upside on good news (and bigger dips if hawkish).
“Is it hawkish or dovish?” a 90-second checklist for decision day
Right after 2:00–2:30 pm ET on Wed:
Dot plot: If more 2025 cuts planned = dovish; fewer = hawkish. (This is the clearest future-path signal.)
2-year U.S. yield & DXY:
Down = markets heard dovish
Up = markets heard hawkish
BTC vs pre-FOMC high/low:
Above pre-FOMC high on rising volume → ETH/SOL often follow up in the next 12–48h
Below pre-FOMC low → trim/hedge risk (SOL first), expect chop
The timeline playbook (T-3 → T+14) with possible exact prices
Below are typical, data-informed bands (they’re not promises NFA). We express each window as a % and a price range from today’s marks.
T-3 to T-1 (Mon–Wed morning) “waiting room”
Sideways or small dips are common in expected-cut weeks.
BTC
T-3: −0.5% to +1.5% → $115,476–$117,798
T-2: −0.5% to +1.2% → $115,477–$117,450
T-1: −1.0% to +0.5% → $114,896–$116,637
ETH
T-3: −0.8% to +1.2% → $4,680–$4,775
T-2: −0.6% to +1.0% → $4,690–$4,765
T-1: −0.8% to +0.4% → $4,680–$4,737
SOL
T-3: −0.5% to +1.8% → $241.16–$246.73
T-2: −0.5% to +1.5% → $241.16–$246.01
T-1: −0.6% to +0.6% → $240.92–$243.82
(These match “calm, well-telegraphed” patterns like Sep 2024.)
T+1 (the day after) two paths
If the read is DOVISH:
BTC: +1.5% to +4.0% → $117,798–$120,699
ETH: +1.0% to +3.0% → $4,765–$4,860
SOL: +2.0% to +5.0% → $247.22–$254.49
If the read is HAWKISH:
BTC: −5.0% to −2.0% → $110,254–$113,736
ETH: −6.0% to −3.0% → $4,435–$4,576
SOL: −8.0% to −4.0% → $222.98–$232.68
T+7 (one week after) cumulative
Base case (25 bps + dovish):
BTC: +3% to +6% → $119,539–$123,020
ETH: +2.5% to +5% → $4,836–$4,954
SOL: +4% to +7% → $252.06–$259.34
Hawkish case:
BTC: −6% to −3% → $109,094–$112,575
ETH: −8% to −4% → $4,341–$4,529
SOL: −10% to −5% → $218.13–$230.25
T+14 (two weeks after) cumulative
Base case (25 bps + dovish):
BTC: +5% to +10% → $121,860–$127,663
ETH: +4% to +9% → $4,906–$5,143
SOL: +7% to +12% → $259.34–$271.45
Hawkish case: (mirrors Dec 2024)
BTC: −7% to −3% → $107,933–$112,575
ETH: −8% to −4% → $4,341–$4,529
SOL: −10% to −5% → $218.13–$230.25
Very dovish surprise (50 bps):
BTC: +10% to +16% → $127,663–$134,626
ETH: +8% to +14% → $5,095–$5,379
SOL: +12% to +20% → $271.45–$290.84
Bottom line
If this is an expected 25 bps “recalibration” and the dots/press conference sound open to more easing, history says sideways into the meeting and higher after—BTC steady, ETH/SOL bigger—while a hawkish message flips it into sell-the-news (with SOL swinging most).
Bonus tip: Keep an eye on SOL-specific headlines (the Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF process) and weekly flow prints—they can add extra fuel on green days or cushion dips. not financial advice. Trade small around the decision, use clear stops, and let the post-FOMC tone (not your hopes) guide you.
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